Realistic Possibilities And Illogical Hopes - An Analysis Of MacWorld 2006 Called...

In 7 days all the Apple sites will turn their focus from speculation to new product specs and reviews. Until then many of us will sit down and try and second guess both Apple and the rumor mill on what will be coming or should be coming at MacWorld 2006. Here are some of my thoughts.

Based on all the conjecture out there we can make the half assured assumption that at least some of the following will be announced.

• iLife '06 and the iTMS
As has been the case in previous years Apple will most likely update the iLife offering. What will actually be updated with GarageBand, iMovie, iPhoto, iDVD and iTunes remains to be seen. In fact there hasn't been much guesswork done in this department. The last round of updates in 2005 were pretty minimal, as in there was no major headline making changes made to any of the programs. iDVD and iMovie got HD support, GarageBand got a few new features - that only the most ardent musician would take advantage of, iPhoto probably got the biggest update including a host of built in editing functions. As for iTunes, most of the updates are done independently from the boxed version.
What could we expect? Well, it's hard to say. There are any number of new features that could be added to the iLife suite. GarageBand and iMovie could most certainly get some podcast creation functions. iMovie could most certainly, if it doesn't have it already, get the ability to export movies in the new 320x240 m4v iPod format (the way Quicktime Pro does). Or Apple could release a multimedia program completely dedicated to creating iPod content. I doubt it, but the possiblity and interest are there. It would also generate a "must buy an iPod" feeling. For the moment you have to download a program from Apple to create "chapters" etc for podcasts. We could see additions to the iTMS in the video department. Perhaps, just maybe, the availability of feature length films. No doubt they'll be more TV shows. And no doubt all of us outside of the US will in no way be affected...blahh. I can't really see Apple making any really big changes to iTunes itself, unless it is in conjuncture with the wildly rumored new media distribution system. In which case it will be related to how video content is handled. They will most likely update the current iTunes in some way to keep it in the news and give us something to download as soon as the keynote is done. That has become something of a tradition. A real long shot would be the inclusion of Pages and Keynote (iWork) bundled with iLife. Sales have been pretty meager for the iWork set, which brings me to...

• iWork
Well, there are limitless updates, improvements and extras that can be added to iWork. There is a consistant rumor about a spreadsheet program etc. Just about anything could happen with iWork, it's sort of the wild card. Personally I still haven't been given a reason to need/buy it. But, maybe Apple will give me one this time.

• .Mac
.Mac never gets much attention at these types of events, and I can't really imagine it getting any at MacWorld this year. UNLESS, it has to do with this "new media distribution system" and the downloading of feature films. The theory being that you would never actually have the content on your system, it would be accessed via your iDisk or on your iPod. The increase of bandwidth from 3GB a month to an insane 1000GB a month obviously brings up some question marks. (This was apparantely a mistake, and since been reverted to 10GB, although it is still advertised as 3GB - ThinkSecret.com.) And perhaps completely unrelated, the release of Broadband Tuner a while back that allowed you to optimize your broadband speeds also makes one wonder. But, as it is, there are so many potholes in this idea that it seems almost impossible. I may be completely off, but expecting people to pay $100 a year for the .Mac service to be able to use whatever new movie download service Apple is hypothetically cooking up seems unreal. Sure, Apple could make some much needed improvements to .Mac, but announcing them at such a huge event doesn't seem realistic. Who knows maybe they'll make it free and bundled with all Mac purchases...and put out a Windows version.

• New Intel Macs
To be completely honest I don't expect Apple to announce the immediate availability of any new Intel based Macs. I can see Steve Jobs showing one off, sure, but putting them on the market already doesn't seem plausible. For one thing, I, and many others, probably want a bit more information as to how all this is going to work in regards to speeds, price, programs, etc. I want proof of the conception. I want to know what's in it for me. Apple said June 2006, they have 6 more months to perfect everything why rush it. It makes sense to give everyone a sneak preview of what's coming, but dropping the bomb now is probably not going to happen. I'm not saying I wouldn't want it to, I just have this nagging feeling that this is going to be the dissapointment that everyone has with the keynote.

On the other hand, to go against my own assumptions, what if they did announce a new Intel Mac for immediate purchase? What would it be? Well, much, if not all, of the speculation falls on a new Super Mac Mini, geared entirely for home entertainment. We can assume this means TiVo killing powers, an improved FrontRow with remote, better speeds, more memory, and some serious wireless capabilities built in. Throw in the fact that it works quite well as a computer and you've got major league headline interest. Cut the price a bit and you've got the must have item of the year. But, once again, will it happen...maybe. Then there is the possibility of new laptops with built in iSights and bigger and better screens, topped off with speed increases and all smothered in new looks. Hmm...njaa...possibly.

• This FrontRow Thing
Apple told us that this would only be available on the iMac and would not be made available for purchase for existing Macs. Within 24 hours people had already started petitions. And not much further on down the road you could get it on a number of BitTorrent sites and with some higgery-jiggery have it up and running on any Mac. A bit later Apple made it available for download from their own site, once again just for the new iMac, but the higgery-jiggery was all that was needed to get this legal download up and running on any Mac. So, why doesn't Apple just make it standard on all new Macs. One can assume they will. But what about all of us who already have a Mac and want in on the action. Well, one can speculate about an update to FrontRow. What the update includes is anybody's guess. But rest assured if Apple announces anything related to FrontRow it will be a different version than what was released earlier in 2005. This brings me to the thought that all Apple really has to do is release a receiver for the remote that can be purchased at any Apple retailer and you can pretty much make any Mac into a FrontRow running machine. People are running the thing as is, at no profit for Apple, so why not? Heck you could even bundle FrontRow with iLife, seems logical. You could also make a fancy new remote that does a lot more than the current one. Or you could make the iPod shuffle into a remote. Or you could...well, you could do lots of stuff.

• Preview Of Leopard
I actually think this going to happen. I really do. Why? Because it will generate interest in what's to come. And it will even get Windows people thinking. There are widespread ideas about all the new features Leopard is going to include, and you can google for them. I won't bother to list them. Leopard is due out sometime late this year or early 2007, so giving us a sneak peak isn't going to hurt Apple at all, it will still be ahead of Vista. The way I see it, if there aren't any new Macs announced there has to be a Leopard preview. It makes one know that Apple is working hard on the future of the Macintosh, not just selling iPods. Also any Leopard preview is going to have to be Intel-centric. As in, "What's going to be different with Leopard is...."

• iPods And Their Ilk
Well there certainly isn't going to be a 6th generation iPod. And there certainly isn't going to be a new iPod. In fact there may not be any iPods at all. There is a lot of talk about the lack of 1GB iPod Shuffles available, but that could be just that. From what I know you can't get a Nano anywhere either. But, what are they gonna do with the 1GB Shuffle? They can't make it smaller, and I really don't see what the point of making a 1GB Nano is. Unless it is so cheap that it wipes out all of the other 1GB mp3 player competition. Which it would if it was say around $100. It's hard to say here. For all we know they'll just put it out in some new colors.
Apple may be content to just release some iPod accessories, such as the much touted iPod stereo that has been thrown around on the interweb. What it will include is anybody's guess, but it will certainly have to have some nifty features that all of the other third party iPod stereo's don't have. Like a hard drive, an LCD screen, a remote with an LCD screen, AirPort compatibility etc. Something will have to make it Apple and something will have to make it awesome. Otherwise people will turn their attention elsewhere, to people like Bose and others already established in the stereo market.

• Other Stuff
There is always the possibility of something unforeseen. This seems to be getting rarer and rarer. But, maybe Apple is getting better at keeping secrets away from the rumor sites. We could see a new AirPort that has better transfer rates for video, we could see a Widget development kit, a completely new program that does for video what iTunes does for music, or we could even see the infamous tablet Mac. Odds are they'll be none of this or anything like it. But, we can dream. Heck I'd be happy with an update to the OSX spellchecker that acknowledges words like mp3, iPod, and podcast. Anything that happens in what I will dub the "potpourri" category will be plenty welcomed by all.

So, what is the final prognosis. Here is my guesswork, in a format that will make it easy for me to see everywhere I went wrong one week from today.

• iLife '06 - likely
•• Changes to iTunes - likely
•• New Programs Added - not likely
•• Inclusion of iWork - very unlikely
•• More Content on iTMS - definitely
••• Feature Films - probable

• Potpourri - lets hope so
•• New AirPort - possibly
•• New Program - unlikely
•• Tablet Mac - only if Steve Jobs wears a Van Halen t-shirt
•• Updated Spellchecker - only if Steve Jobs reads this on his lunch hour

There you have it, how freakin' wrong can I be? Probably very.

K. Panda